Bajaj Auto stock in focus as Q4 profit climbs 6%, Bernstein, CLSA bullish, Jefferies cautious

Bajaj Auto reported a steady Q4FY25 performance with profit at Rs 2,049.3 crore, up 5.9% YoY from Rs 1,936 crore. Revenue grew 5.8% YoY to Rs 12,148 crore. EBITDA rose 6.2% to Rs 2,450.6 crore, while EBITDA margin was stable at 20.17%, up 7 basis points YoY.

The company maintained healthy margins despite export headwinds and increasing EV mix, supported by better product mix and ASP growth.

Brokerages on Bajaj Auto: mixed views post Q4

Bernstein maintained ‘Outperform’ with a target price of Rs 11,000, citing Bajaj Auto’s ability to sustain margins and a positive export outlook. The firm noted that the company delivered a respectable Q4 despite KTM export suspension, soft domestic volumes, and rising EV penetration.

CLSA also retained ‘Outperform’, target price Rs 10,149. It highlighted 6% revenue growth, 3% volume growth, and 12 percentage point YoY market share gain in electric two-wheelers (e-2Ws), now at 25%. CLSA models 7% volume growth in domestic 2Ws and 12% export growth for FY26.

Jefferies kept a ‘Hold’ rating with TP Rs 8,000. While positive on growth in domestic and export 2Ws and the rising EV franchise, Jefferies expressed concern about a dip in domestic motorcycle market share and export volume share. The brokerage expects 13% EPS CAGR for FY25-28E but considers the stock valuation at 26x FY26E PE as expensive.

Goldman Sachs (GS) reported that Bajaj Auto’s Q4 results were in line, with 6% YoY growth in revenue and EBITDA. It raised FY26-28 EPS estimates by up to 4% and increased its 12-month price target to Rs 9,600 (from Rs 9,300), implying 8.2% upside. GS expects 5-6% growth in the domestic 2W market, 14% growth in exports for FY26, and highlights upcoming launches, including an e-rickshaw in July 2025 and six new Pulsar variants.

GS projects FY25-28 revenue CAGR at 15.6%, EBITDA CAGR at 14.6%, and EPS CAGR at 14.6%, with EBITDA margins around 20%. Dividend payout ratio is expected at 70-80%, with dividend yield rising from 2.2% in FY25 to 3.9% by FY28E.

Disclaimer: This article is purely informational and based on inputs provided. It is not investment advice. Readers should consult a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.